While this schedule certainly looks easy right now, there are a few things to point out: (1) the Cardinals should be a little better with Kyler Murray expected to return this weekend; (2) based off his comments after MNF in Week 9, Aaron Rodgers could be under center for the Jets when they take on the Falcons in Week 13; and (3) there s a good chance Justin Fields is playing for his job in Week 17, so that might be a bit of a scrappy Bears team.
Best Bet on Falcons Futures
While I do agree Taylor Heinicke is an upgrade over Desmond Ridder, I don t think he solves all of Atlanta s problems. We did just see them lose to a quarterback who had no practice with his new team. Another problem for the Falcons is that the team with the second-easiest second half schedule is the New Orleans Saints, the team who currently holds a one-game lead over them in the NFC South.
I d like to bet the under on Atlanta s win total (8.5), but don t love that the best price is -150. There are too many things that could go the Falcons way over the final nine week to help them squeak out five wins Rodgers not returning in time, the Bears pulling the plug on Fields, or even the Saints having nothing to play for in Week 18.
The -150 bet I prefer is what I mentioned last: the Saints wrapping up the division. So, again, I m not technically making a bet on the Falcons, but one against them. You can find New Orleans to win the NFC South at this price over at BetMGM.
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From Weeks 14-16, the Saints play the Panthers, Giants, and Rams. I think they have this division sealed after that stretch. Derek Carr seems to be getting much more comfortable in the new offense and their defense is one of the best in the league.
Are the Texans a Good Bet to Make the Playoffs?
I ll answer this one quickly for you: yes!
Houston is tied for the third-easiest second half schedule, as their average opponent is just a 7.78-win team. They are just one game out of the playoffs right now but also have the Bills a half-game in front of them as well.
However, the Bills don t look right and they also face the third-toughest second half schedule, which is an average 9.50-win opponent each week. Those opponents for the Bills include the Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys, and Dolphins (in Miami). I think those are all losses, which would make the Bills a 9-8 team, assuming they manage to beat the Broncos, Jets, Chargers, and Patriots.
Now let s have a look at those AFC North teams who are taking up all three wild card spots at the moment. They all play at least three more games against other AFC North teams, with the Steelers and Bengals having four more. Whether a team like Pittsburgh falls off and loses a bunch of those games, or if they all split, it opens the door for someone to get hot down the stretch and sneak in.
You can get the Texans at +250 to make the playoffs at both FanDuel and DraftKings. BUT, I actually think you wait one week to make this bet. Houston takes on the Bengals this week, and I don t like their chances as seven-point dogs on the road. If they lose, I suspect we ll be able to get the Texans at odds a touch longer than +300 as they prepare for a stretch of games against the Cardinals, Jaguars (who they hammered earlier this year), and Broncos.
