Fresh off a convincing win on the road last week as 7.5-point dogs, CJ Stroud, and the Houston Texans will look to even their record with a win at home vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday as 3-point underdogs according to NFL odds.
Stroud has impressed over the last five quarters and has done so with a band-aid of an offensive line. With the Texans showing the ability to score in both positive and negative scripts, can bettors stay profitable betting on the Houston offense this week?
Find out what I think in my free NFL picks for the Steelers vs. Texans on October 1.
Steelers vs Texans odds
Steelers vs Texans predictions
The Houston Texans have scored 47 points over their last five quarters and looked good last week vs. a spiraling Jacksonville team. The most impressive thing is that CJ Stroud has done this with an O-line that has had serious injuries through three games.
Laremy Tunsil was inactive last week, but if he can get back in Week 4, it would be a huge boost to this offense as depth is an issue as currently, five members of the O-line are on the IR or out. However, even if Tunsil sits, this offense has shown it can put up points without its blindside protection.
CJ Stroud has more passing yards this season than the:ChiefsLionsBroncosPatriotsSaintsJaguars49ersSeahawksBillsRaidersSteelersBrownsColtsCommandersPantherwsPackersCowboysEaglesBuccaneersRavensGiantsBengalsFalconsCardinalsTitansBearsJets pic.twitter.com/qf1dG4aDsl
— StatMuse NFL (@statmusenfl) September 27, 2023
Despite the protection setbacks, this is an offense that is No. 4 in third-down conversions and has to pass the ball as its run-blocking is non-existent — currently sitting 31st in yards per carry at 2.9.
Because of this, Stroud has been in pass mode over 65% of the time to begin the year, with that number sitting at 55% last week with a plus positive game script. Nico Collins and and Tank Dell have been exceptional while Robert Woods is a safe No. 3.
All of this passing equals points, and with Houston running plays at the third fastest pace of play in football, Sunday is a great time to hit the team total Over 19.5 as the full game Over has taken some professional money, too.
The Pittsburgh Steelers may seem like they have a good defense, but rank 21st in yards per play allowed against some average QB play in Brock Purdy, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Deshaun Watson.
Their offense is also struggling and not giving the defense a lot of time to recover. Pittsburgh currently ranks 31st in average time of possession behind only Zach Wilson and the Jets, meaning Houston will have plenty of offensive possessions Sunday.
Yes, the Steelers’ pass rush has a great matchup (first in sacks and second in pressure), but garbage time points are certainly in this handicap and Stroud has looked elite on money downs to begin his career.
Twenty points is a total the Texans have reached in back-to-back games, and a healthier O-line with Stroud gaining more experience is only going to help.
My best bet: Texans team total Over 19.5 (-115 at bet365)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Steelers vs Texans spread and Over/Under analysis
Pittsburgh was -4.5 on the look-ahead line but reopened at -3 after the Texans’ performance last week, coupled with Pittsburgh’s offensive showing through three weeks.
Pittsburgh might be 2-1 but it ranks 30th in offensive EPA/play, is without Diontae Johnson again this week, continues to run the ball despite the worst rushing success rate in football at 28.6%, and has the second-worst time of possession. This is a very good spot to fade a bad Pittsburgh offense (and an average Pittsburgh defense) and bettors are seeing that with the move from 4.5 to 3.
Stroud threw for 193 yards in garbage time in Week 2 but also tossed for another 280 last week in a game that Houston was leading early and often. With no run game, Stroud has been passing and moving the sticks. Houston sits fourth in third-down conversion percentage and Stroud has a 70% completion rate on third and fourth downs. He’s also had 57 third- or fourth-down plays which is 10 more than the next QB.
This total took some early money on the Over as it opened at 41 and hit 42 by Tuesday morning. Houston sits third in pace of play while the Steelers sit not too far behind in eighth.
Another thing that has me liking this Over is that neither team can run. Pittsburgh continues to try which has been frustrating backing the Steelers and the Over, but Houston showed a good pass rate last week in a positive game script. The Texans also play fast and pass a lot in a negative game script.
The worst-case scenario is the Houston line can’t protect Stroud who took five sacks in Week 1 vs. Baltimore. But Houston still ran 72 plays and went 7-for-18 on third downs in that game and unfortunately turned the ball over on downs three times.
