Following their Week 12 loss in Denver, the banged-up Cleveland Browns have stayed out west ahead of their meeting with the Los Angeles Rams, who enter as 3.5-point home chalk. The visiting team could be without Myles Garrett, and are turning to 38-year-old Joe Flacco at quarterback.
With some questionable QB play and other members of the offense not practicing this week, could Jerome Ford be leaned on even more for an Browns offense that will be lacking game-changing talent on Sunday?
I break down the Week 13 edition of the NFL odds and offer my free NFL picks for Browns vs. Rams on Sunday, December 3.
Browns vs Rams odds
Browns vs Rams predictions
Despite a loss, a negative game script, and single-digit carries, Jerome Ford finished with 65 yards on the ground vs. a good Denver defense last week on just nine carries. Over Cleveland’s last eight games, all three losses have come with Ford getting under 10 carries. That might be due to chasing points, but if the Browns want to stay in the playoffs, they have to lean on Ford this week vs. the Rams.
He should see his volume increase this week in an indoor game with a likely neutral game script. The quarterback play is dicey, which could result in fewer total plays, but Ford will carry the load even more on Sunday vs. the Rams.
Backup Kareem Hunt is dealing with a groin injury and has been limited at practice this week, and Amari Cooper was also limited on Thursday. The entire Cleveland offense could revolve around Ford this week, and with a modest rushing total of 50.5 that hasn’t been adjusted from Week 12, this is an easy Over for me.
This is a team that will not want to play from behind with Cooper questionable and Joe Flacco being the starter. This will be a ball-control game that could see Ford hit 10 carries before the first half.
Since Week 6, Ford is busting runs at a 4.7 yards per tote, which ranks No. 1 among running backs with at least 95 carries. Additionally, 13% of his carries are going for at least 10 yards. If he gets a big rush load, this 50.5 could be sweatless.
He can get there on volume or he can get there on efficiency. There are a lot of outs here, and even if the Browns trail early, it is still live. His Milestones at 75+ (+330) and 100+ (+1075) are also live this weekend.
My best bet: Jerome Ford Over 50.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Browns vs Rams same-game parlay
Jerome Ford 75+ rushing yardsKyren Williams 50+ rushing yardsUnder 40.5
+1,400 at bet365
This is a pretty big number for a game that, if the rushing props hit, could be a slow and rush-heavy affair. Ford could be the man in Cleveland this week and I can’t expect Flacco to throw the ball 35 times.
Kyren Williams looked great in his return last week, rushing 16 times for 143 yards. This game could easily feature both teams’ running games, and if the Browns can get their injured defensive starters back in the lineup, this 40.5 should close with some value.
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