The Miami Dolphins and Denver Broncos have had dramatically different starts to their respective seasons with the Dolphins shooting up the Super Bowl odds board, while the Broncos have already dropped two games as a home favorite. The teams will face off in South Florida on Sunday with the Dolphins favored by 6.5 points with a total of 47.5, according to the latest NFL odds.
Each team’s quarterback will be under the microscope for different reasons as Tua Tagovailoa has skyrocketed to being the league favorite in NFL MVP odds, while Russell Wilson will be desperate to show he can return to his old self.
Let’s dig into what we’ve seen out of the teams this season and how they match up against each other. Here are my NFL picks and predictions for Broncos vs. Dolphins on Sunday, September 24, 2023.
Broncos vs Dolphins odds
Broncos vs Dolphins predictions
Things couldn’t have started much better for the Miami Dolphins with two wins on the road. While Tua Tagovailoa and the passing attack are getting most of the headlines, the play of their offensive line that’s allowed just one sack also deserves to be recognized. Despite missing its top player Terron Armstead, the Dolphins O-line has allowed the least amount of pressure in the league all while facing the second-most blitzes. It helps that Tagovailoa has been getting rid of the ball quickly, but this is still a positive development as the O-line was viewed as a major weakness coming into the season.
This game sets up very nicely for Tua to continue to play in a clean pocket as the Denver Broncos are having serious issues generating pressure. They have the second-lowest pressure percentage through two games despite blitzing at the 11th-highest rate. As a result of giving quarterbacks extra time, they’ve allowed a completion percentage of 72.31% (29th in the NFL). Considering those results came from two middling quarterbacks in Jimmy Garoppolo and Sam Howell, this defense could be in trouble against a Dolphins offense that’s among the best in the league.
Denver also needs to be concerned about its defense as a whole after getting lit up by a Commanders offense that was shut down by the Cardinals in Week 1. Going back to last season, the Broncos have allowed 27 or more points in five of their last seven games.
While the Broncos are easy to pick apart through two games, the blame doesn’t fall on Russell Wilson. People are quick to throw the former star under the bus, but he’s thrown five touchdowns to one interception, while also showing a willingness to run again, picking up 56 yards on six attempts in Week 2.
We know the Dolphins offense has been firing on all cylinders through two games, but it’s been a mixed bag for their defense. They allowed 34 points in their season opener vs. the Chargers thanks to LA rushing for 233 yards, but they had a solid bounce-back performance vs. the Patriots, limiting them to just three points through the first three quarters. Let’s also keep in mind that Dolphins defensive coordinator Vic Fangio will be game-planning for the team that fired him as he was the Broncos head coach from 2019 to 2021.
We clearly have a lot of arrows pointing in Miami’s direction. The Fins should also have a nice home-field advantage playing in that early season South Florida heat, while the Broncos will also be crossing over the eastern time zone for their first 1:00 PM ET game of the season. Given all these factors, I’ll take Miami to cover the -6.5-point spread.
My best bet: Dolphins -6.5 (-110 at FanDuel)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Broncos vs Dolphins same-game parlay
Dolphins -6.51st Quarter Over 8.5
+234 at FanDuel
We’re obviously working off a small sample size, but the Broncos already have three first-quarter touchdowns through two games and we all know how explosive Miami can be. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the desperate Broncos get off to a decent start offensively, then fade as the game goes on, as has been the case so far this season.
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Broncos vs Dolphins spread and Over/Under analysis
While the 6.5-point spread is certainly justified based on what we’ve seen from these teams so far this season, it’s a pretty drastic swing for the Broncos, who were a favorite of three and four points in their opening two games. Of course, they went on to prove they weren’t worthy of being favored in those games and it appears as if they might not be far removed from last year’s version of the team despite Sean Payton stepping in as head coach.
As for the Dolphins, this is the biggest spread they’ve seen in their favor since Week 12 of last season where they were listed at -14 vs. the Texans. Going back a few seasons, they’ve been on a nice run as a home favorite that’s seen them go 14-5-2 ATS.
An interesting note on this total of 47.5 is that the Dolphins went Under in seven of their eight home games last season. They ranked a surprising second in points allowed at home with just 15.5, which was 15.4 fewer points than they allowed on the road.
This is the highest total in well over a season for Denver as they haven’t seen a total this high since November 7, 2021, in Dallas where the game had a total of 50. In case you’re wondering, it went Under.
